First, while not abandoning the aim of nuclear rollback, the prime national
security emphasis must be on ensuring that North Korea does not transfer nuclear
materials or technologies to others—especially terrorists—and to avoid nuclear
blackmail. The Kim regime has already sold ballistic missile technology and the
U.S. must work with the international community to thwart any future sales of
these technologies of mass destruction. Worryingly in the few weeks leading up
to the nuclear test, Pyongyang was reported to have strongly hinted at threats
to transfer nuclear materials to third parties. In addition to intelligence
collection and sharing, the United States will continue to work with
international partners on programs such as the Proliferation Security Initiative
(PSI) to interdict illegal shipments. Again China will be a key partner in such
endeavors as it has an 880 mile border with the DPRK.
Second, the diplomatic pressure for Pyongyang to return to the negotiating
table—the Six Party Talks—can be underlined with targeted sanctions and rigorous
pursuit of North Korea's various illegal revenue generation schemes. China will
be wary of sanctions that could lead to military action and will attempt to
strike a balance between demonstrating its own displeasure at Kim's behaviour
and avoiding total economic collapse for fear of the potential flood of refugees
across its border. It is not clear if regime collapse and economic collapse
could be separated.
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